Following the targeted assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024, the Middle East continues to teeter on the brink of war. Iran threatens Israel with extermination and governments around the world are bracing for an attack on the Jewish state, one that U.S. National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby says “could come with little or no warning.” An all-out war between Iran and Israel would prove disastrous for the entire region and threaten years of U.S. diplomacy.
The Iranian regime’s axis of power, which includes Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq, stretches across much of the Middle East. Besides Israel, no country is in a more precarious geopolitical position than the Kingdom of Jordan. Bordering Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, Jordan’s airspace would no doubt be violated should Iran launch an aerial assault against Israel.
This very thing happened on April 13, 2024, when Iran shot over 300 missiles at Israel. The attack was highly telegraphed, so forces in the region had a chance to mobilize against it. While most of the missiles were shot down in a coordinated effort by Israel and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), the Jordanian air force shot down dozens of drones crossing its airspace. Jordan has been one of Israel’s staunchest critics amidst the war in Gaza, which is no surprise given that 60% of its population is Palestinian. But it’s one of only two Arab countries that has a peace deal with Israel. Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher said that Jordan’s interception efforts were primarily meant to “prevent an escalation,” which would have inflamed the region and endangered Jordan further.
Although Jordan offered few details about its actions or motives that night, it underscored the country’s vital role in regional stability as well as the value of the U.S.-Jordan relationship. Adam Milstein, an L.A.-based venture philanthropist who has made his mark in the Jewish nonprofit world, co-authored an op-ed with the Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano discussing the importance of Jordan to the U.S.’s work in the region. According to them, “The profits of U.S.-Jordanian relations are long—from intelligence cooperation to serving as a critical mediator in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and hosting a vast displaced population.”
Milstein is well-versed in Middle East politics and security. A native Israeli and veteran of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Milstein immigrated to the U.S. in 1981. In 2000, he and his wife Gila co-founded the Adam and Gila Milstein Family Foundation with the targeted mission of supporting a network of nonprofits that strengthen American values, combat hatred and bigotry in all forms, and support the U.S.-Israel alliance. The Milstein Family Foundation supports organizations like the Middle East Forum, which promotes U.S. interests in the region, and the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), an Israeli think tank and leader in the field of security and international affairs.
Milstein and Carafano argue that the U.S. needs to be proactive in the Middle East, projecting both hard and soft power to earn allies’ respect. “American influence in the region is built on the foundation of bilateral ties and military, economic, diplomatic, and security cooperation linkages.” And few nations are more strategically placed than Jordan, which is the U.S.’s largest source of bilateral assistance, receiving billions of dollars in aid to strengthen its military and economy, according to Heritage Foundation analyst Nicole Robinson. But money is not enough to ensure Jordan becomes the ally the U.S. needs it to be.
“What Jordan needs is a strong dose of economic freedom,” Milstein and Carafano say. They point out that although Jordan lacks developed resources, it has a wealth of human capital, untapped energy reserves, and “the capacity to develop renewable energy infrastructure.” Jordan’s economy has grown even more insecure since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. According to Dr. Ofir Winter, Senior Researcher at the INSS, tourism in Jordan has dropped and they face increasing difficulties attracting investments.
Milstein and Carafano believe the best way to jumpstart Jordan’s private sector development is through the Abraham Accords. The normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab states is driven by economic integration and investment, and the U.S. “ought to be actively engaged in promoting the process and creating opportunities and employment for the Jordanian private sector.” Dr. Winter agrees, advising that the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia should “further integrate Jordan into regional normalization processes in a way that promotes its prosperity and stability, for instance, by fostering multilateral economic cooperation and increasing foreign investments in Jordan.”
Investing in Jordan’s economic development is a win-win for the region as a whole as it would build a stronger U.S.-allied bloc that can resist the influence of the Iranian regime. Milstein and Carafano acknowledge that one of Jordan’s biggest concerns is the “destabilizing activities of the Iranian regime.” Since the October 7 attacks by Hamas, Iran has done everything it can to destabilize Jordan, including smuggling arms into the country for use in Jordan itself as well as in the West Bank. Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran expert and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), an organization supported by the Milstein Family Foundation, told Fox News that Jordan is “the last bastion of the pro-Western or status quo order in the heartland of the northern part of the Middle East.” The Iranian regime has “benefited from the rise in anti-Israel sentiment to cause instability in Jordan,” Ben Taleblu said.
Milstein and Carafano insist that in order to stabilize Jordan and the wider region, the U.S. “needs a real plan for Iran.” They don’t believe this should include the “flawed” Iran nuclear deal, which they see as a “pretext, not for dealing with Iran, but for disengaging from the region.” They argue the U.S. must apply maximum pressure on Tehran by supporting the governments of countries like Jordan and Iraq in standing against Iranian influence.
Ultimately, the U.S. and Israel need Jordan’s help in solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. With a majority Palestinian population, Jordan could be incredibly influential under the right circumstances. There’s a dire need to “establish dialogue and look for ways to reach and engage the Palestinian people looking for opportunities to create real jobs, real business, and real economic connectivity to the region,” said Milstein and Carafano. They think Jordan could be that lifeline, but only if its economy is strong and its diplomatic aims are aligned with the U.S.’s greater Middle East strategy.
